It snow joke…….

If the bookmakers Ladbrokes have cut the odds of snow at Easter to 4/5,  after taking a flurry of bets in the last 48 hours, what is that saying about the chances of a white Easter?

IMAG0589But then Ladbrokes are not meteorologists, and they have no greater insight into the possibilities than the average punter on the streets. But there must be some quasi-scientific base on which they calculate their predictions………or is this just fanciful thinking?

IMAG0595A bit like the actuarial tables used by insurance companies to calculate the likelihood of key occurrences like traffic accidents, flooding and (dare I say it) death. Or, as in the case of the financial markets, we always calculate the future performance of investment funds using information on past performance, even though we are told that this is seldom a safe guide.

IMAG0582So, if it does snow on Easter Sunday, it will be the very first time in…………………..well………… only five years. As a lay person, that sounds to me like a distinct possibility close to certainty…….worth putting a tenner on it?

IMAG0583

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About Frank Burns

Looking for the extraordinary in the commonplace………taking the road less travelled……..striving for the ‘faculty of making happy chance discoveries’ in unremarkable circumstances. Click on the Personal Link below to visit my webpages.

Posted on March 24, 2013, in Aspects of Britain, Miscellany and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. 5 Comments.

  1. Don’t they just set the odds by taking an average of average punters and creaming a bit off the top? Pardon my ignorance of how betting works.

    • My ignorance is greater than yours, Richard, but I suspect (in the case of weather) they also look at historical records and, of course, the long range forecast in conjunction with the averaging of wagers. Their plan is always to set the odds so that they make a profit.

  2. I think I would put a tenner on it.
    Your photos of the snow are gorgeous. The last two remind me of The Lion the WItch and the Wardrobe.

  3. Len Lockwood

    Hi Frank……..another Ushaw memory coming up…….Dr Aly Theissen, our Scripture and Hebrew Professor met a close friend of mine in the ambulac just after we had taken our Hebrew exam. James he called in his
    Rhineland accent “You have come top in your exam……. Why?” Now Jim was as good at Hebrew as I was at Latin…..in the bottom 3 or 4 on a regular basis!
    “Well Sir ” he replied I have copies of your exam papers over the last 6 or so exams.And There were always at l;east 2 Psalms to translate. And I spent several hours translating the 3 or4 which were set regularly.
    You mean to say you picked th e 3 favouririte runners and backed them and they came up?
    No said Jim “Only the f irst 2” “Well done , Jim” and off trotted Aly to Profs’ Parlour

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